OPINION
Ed Javier
Checkmate! How Malacanang Lost The Game To VP Sara
Photo credit: Inday Sara Duterte
In our last column, we described the 2025 midterm elections as a voter rebellion in disguise, an undercurrent of resistance against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s leadership.
The electorate, far from being passive, delivered a sharp message: they are watching, thinking, and reacting. It was a nuanced but potent act of democratic pushback.
This time, we turn to the most immediate political consequence of that voter rebellion: the Senate trial of Vice President Sara Duterte.
In our view, VP Duterte will not be convicted.
The House of Representatives has done its part. She has been impeached. The charges, still publicly murky and politically charged, will now head to the Senate for trial. But as things stand today, the outcome is all but certain.
The reason is not just emotional or tribal. It is numerical, structural, and political.
To convict any impeached official, the Senate needs a two-thirds vote, or 16 out of 24 senators.
This threshold is deliberately high, meant to protect the process from being hijacked by shifting political winds. And in the wake of the May 2025 elections, there is no longer any path to 16 votes against Sara Duterte.
Let us do the math.
In the recent midterms, five of the twelve winning senators were either directly endorsed by Duterte, ran under her shadow, or benefited from the political backlash against Malacañang.
Senators Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa and Imee Marcos; incoming Senators Camille Villar and Rodante Marcoleta, all carry the imprimatur of the Duterte camp.
That’s five.
Add to that the existing senators known to be Duterte loyalists or aligned: Robin Padilla, Jinggoy Estrada, Mark Villar, and Alan Peter Cayetano. That brings the count to nine.
Looking at the numbers, that’s nine likely votes against conviction, enough to block the 16-vote requirement for a guilty verdict.
Then there’s political context. Several sitting senators who are not openly pro-Sara are up for reelection in 2028. These include JV Ejercito, Raffy Tulfo, and Chiz Escudero.
Even Senator Loren Legarda, whose brother just secured reelection as representative of Antique, must weigh the regional and familial dynamics at play.
The Dutertes still command loyalty in many parts of the Visayas, including provinces like Antique. For politicians with strong local ties, the political calculus extends far beyond Senate deliberations, it touches home.
The same can be said for former Senate President Migz Zubiri. His wife just won as Bukidnon representative, and some observers believe she may be holding the post as a placeholder, keeping the seat warm for him once he finishes his Senate term in 2028.
Zubiri, a native of Mindanao, understands the enduring clout of the Duterte brand in his home region.
After seeing the strength of Sara’s endorsement and Rodante Marcoleta’s surprise showing in the Top 6, these senators will think twice before alienating that bloc.
The result is simple. An impeachment that may proceed procedurally is already dead politically.
But this is more than just a numbers game. The narrative has shifted too, and that is just as crucial as the vote count.
The Marcos administration tried to build a moral and legal case against the Vice President, but it underestimated the emotional undercurrent surrounding the arrest of her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte.
The legal maneuver may have had technical merit, but politically, it was a strategic misfire.
Rather than isolating the Dutertes, it ignited a tribal defense and revived old loyalties. It allowed Sara Duterte to wrap herself in the mantle of victimhood, convenient perhaps, but effective nonetheless.
In the provinces, on social media, and in everyday conversations, the dominant perception is not about guilt or innocence but revenge and betrayal.
And as we wrote last week, the Palace failed to meet that narrative challenge. They offered no clarity, no defense, no strong message. In that vacuum, the Duterte camp took over the national conversation and won it.
That conversation shaped the vote. And now, it shapes the fate of the impeachment.
More broadly, this failed attempt at removal reveals the administration’s dwindling political and strategic capital.
The Marcos camp, despite holding the presidency, the budget, and much of the bureaucracy, now finds itself unable to marshal a coalition strong enough to convict a Vice President it publicly wants out.
That is not just a failure of arithmetic. It is a failure of statecraft.
Like a chess game, the BBM administration committed a major blunder:turning over to the ICC former President Rodrigo Duterte midway through the campaign.
It sealed the deal to the advantage of VP Sara.
It strengthened her emotional hold over her base and turned a tactical move into a symbolic rallying point.
What happens next?
The Senate trial will likely proceed, if only to give the appearance of constitutional duty. Lawyers will posture, speeches will be made, and the media will cover the spectacle.
But seasoned political observers know the score. There will be no conviction. No removal. No final blow.
Instead, what will emerge is a strengthened Sara Duterte. Surviving impeachment will give her the political equivalent of battle scars, a mark not of weakness but of endurance.
Unless something dramatic happens, this process may very well propel her forward, not bring her down.
Ironically, in trying to remove her, the Palace may have handed Sara Duterte the very platform she needs for 2028. She will now enter the next cycle as someone who faced the full weight of state power and survived.
In Philippine politics, that makes you dangerous. That makes you credible.
In the end, the May 2025 elections did more than shake the Senate. They reshaped the battlefield.
The impeachment of Sara Duterte, once thought to be the climax of a power struggle, now looks more like an inflection point, one that turned a legal offensive into a political blunder.
In the end, BBM has no one to blame but the people around him, those who misread the mood of the electorate, underestimated the emotional depth of Duterte loyalty, and let arrogance, entitlement, and miscalculation dictate strategy.
The electorate, far from being passive, delivered a sharp message: they are watching, thinking, and reacting. It was a nuanced but potent act of democratic pushback.
This time, we turn to the most immediate political consequence of that voter rebellion: the Senate trial of Vice President Sara Duterte.
In our view, VP Duterte will not be convicted.
The House of Representatives has done its part. She has been impeached. The charges, still publicly murky and politically charged, will now head to the Senate for trial. But as things stand today, the outcome is all but certain.
The reason is not just emotional or tribal. It is numerical, structural, and political.
To convict any impeached official, the Senate needs a two-thirds vote, or 16 out of 24 senators.
This threshold is deliberately high, meant to protect the process from being hijacked by shifting political winds. And in the wake of the May 2025 elections, there is no longer any path to 16 votes against Sara Duterte.
Let us do the math.
In the recent midterms, five of the twelve winning senators were either directly endorsed by Duterte, ran under her shadow, or benefited from the political backlash against Malacañang.
Senators Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa and Imee Marcos; incoming Senators Camille Villar and Rodante Marcoleta, all carry the imprimatur of the Duterte camp.
That’s five.
Add to that the existing senators known to be Duterte loyalists or aligned: Robin Padilla, Jinggoy Estrada, Mark Villar, and Alan Peter Cayetano. That brings the count to nine.
Looking at the numbers, that’s nine likely votes against conviction, enough to block the 16-vote requirement for a guilty verdict.
Then there’s political context. Several sitting senators who are not openly pro-Sara are up for reelection in 2028. These include JV Ejercito, Raffy Tulfo, and Chiz Escudero.
Even Senator Loren Legarda, whose brother just secured reelection as representative of Antique, must weigh the regional and familial dynamics at play.
The Dutertes still command loyalty in many parts of the Visayas, including provinces like Antique. For politicians with strong local ties, the political calculus extends far beyond Senate deliberations, it touches home.
The same can be said for former Senate President Migz Zubiri. His wife just won as Bukidnon representative, and some observers believe she may be holding the post as a placeholder, keeping the seat warm for him once he finishes his Senate term in 2028.
Zubiri, a native of Mindanao, understands the enduring clout of the Duterte brand in his home region.
After seeing the strength of Sara’s endorsement and Rodante Marcoleta’s surprise showing in the Top 6, these senators will think twice before alienating that bloc.
The result is simple. An impeachment that may proceed procedurally is already dead politically.
But this is more than just a numbers game. The narrative has shifted too, and that is just as crucial as the vote count.
The Marcos administration tried to build a moral and legal case against the Vice President, but it underestimated the emotional undercurrent surrounding the arrest of her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte.
The legal maneuver may have had technical merit, but politically, it was a strategic misfire.
Rather than isolating the Dutertes, it ignited a tribal defense and revived old loyalties. It allowed Sara Duterte to wrap herself in the mantle of victimhood, convenient perhaps, but effective nonetheless.
In the provinces, on social media, and in everyday conversations, the dominant perception is not about guilt or innocence but revenge and betrayal.
And as we wrote last week, the Palace failed to meet that narrative challenge. They offered no clarity, no defense, no strong message. In that vacuum, the Duterte camp took over the national conversation and won it.
That conversation shaped the vote. And now, it shapes the fate of the impeachment.
More broadly, this failed attempt at removal reveals the administration’s dwindling political and strategic capital.
The Marcos camp, despite holding the presidency, the budget, and much of the bureaucracy, now finds itself unable to marshal a coalition strong enough to convict a Vice President it publicly wants out.
That is not just a failure of arithmetic. It is a failure of statecraft.
Like a chess game, the BBM administration committed a major blunder:turning over to the ICC former President Rodrigo Duterte midway through the campaign.
It sealed the deal to the advantage of VP Sara.
It strengthened her emotional hold over her base and turned a tactical move into a symbolic rallying point.
What happens next?
The Senate trial will likely proceed, if only to give the appearance of constitutional duty. Lawyers will posture, speeches will be made, and the media will cover the spectacle.
But seasoned political observers know the score. There will be no conviction. No removal. No final blow.
Instead, what will emerge is a strengthened Sara Duterte. Surviving impeachment will give her the political equivalent of battle scars, a mark not of weakness but of endurance.
Unless something dramatic happens, this process may very well propel her forward, not bring her down.
Ironically, in trying to remove her, the Palace may have handed Sara Duterte the very platform she needs for 2028. She will now enter the next cycle as someone who faced the full weight of state power and survived.
In Philippine politics, that makes you dangerous. That makes you credible.
In the end, the May 2025 elections did more than shake the Senate. They reshaped the battlefield.
The impeachment of Sara Duterte, once thought to be the climax of a power struggle, now looks more like an inflection point, one that turned a legal offensive into a political blunder.
In the end, BBM has no one to blame but the people around him, those who misread the mood of the electorate, underestimated the emotional depth of Duterte loyalty, and let arrogance, entitlement, and miscalculation dictate strategy.
May 16, 2025
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