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JTBC Forecast: Lee Jae-Myung Leads Presidential Race With 50.6%-Kim Moon-Soo Trails At 39.4%
Photo credit: JTBC
The presidential race is heating up, and if the latest numbers from JTBC’s forecast poll are anything to go by, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party might just be headed for victory.
According to the poll, Lee is currently projected to secure 50.6% of the vote, putting him 11.2 percentage points ahead of Kim Moon-soo from the People Power Party, who is sitting at 39.4%. Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok comes in third with 7.9%.
Let’s break it down by region:
In Seoul, Lee is forecast to win with 48.2%, while Kim gets 38.6%—a 9.6-point lead. In the Gyeonggi region, Lee pulls further ahead at 51.6% versus Kim’s 38.5%. Incheon follows a similar trend, with Lee at 50.2% and Kim at 39.3%.
However, it’s not a clean sweep for Lee. In the Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang (PK) regions, as well as Daegu and North Gyeongsang (TK), Kim is projected to take the lead.
Lee regains strong footing in the Jeolla region—Gwangju, North Jeolla, and South Jeolla—where he’s expected to beat Kim by a significant margin.
Other key battlegrounds include:
• Daejeon: Lee leads with 49.9% to Kim’s 37.5%
• Sejong: Lee takes a strong 52.6%, while Kim holds 37.5%
• South Chungcheong: Lee at 47.6%, Kim close behind with 42.4%
• North Chungcheong: A tight race, with Kim slightly ahead at 47.0%, and Lee at 45.3%
• Gangwon: Another close one—Lee at 47.9%, Kim at 44.3%
• Jeju: Lee dominates here with 51.5%, compared to Kim’s 37.2%
With numbers like these, it’s clear that Lee Jae-myung has the edge nationwide, but certain regions remain tight battlegrounds that could shake things up. As always, these are forecast numbers—everything can change on election day, so all eyes remain on the upcoming vote.
According to the poll, Lee is currently projected to secure 50.6% of the vote, putting him 11.2 percentage points ahead of Kim Moon-soo from the People Power Party, who is sitting at 39.4%. Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok comes in third with 7.9%.
Let’s break it down by region:
In Seoul, Lee is forecast to win with 48.2%, while Kim gets 38.6%—a 9.6-point lead. In the Gyeonggi region, Lee pulls further ahead at 51.6% versus Kim’s 38.5%. Incheon follows a similar trend, with Lee at 50.2% and Kim at 39.3%.
However, it’s not a clean sweep for Lee. In the Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang (PK) regions, as well as Daegu and North Gyeongsang (TK), Kim is projected to take the lead.
Lee regains strong footing in the Jeolla region—Gwangju, North Jeolla, and South Jeolla—where he’s expected to beat Kim by a significant margin.
Other key battlegrounds include:
• Daejeon: Lee leads with 49.9% to Kim’s 37.5%
• Sejong: Lee takes a strong 52.6%, while Kim holds 37.5%
• South Chungcheong: Lee at 47.6%, Kim close behind with 42.4%
• North Chungcheong: A tight race, with Kim slightly ahead at 47.0%, and Lee at 45.3%
• Gangwon: Another close one—Lee at 47.9%, Kim at 44.3%
• Jeju: Lee dominates here with 51.5%, compared to Kim’s 37.2%
With numbers like these, it’s clear that Lee Jae-myung has the edge nationwide, but certain regions remain tight battlegrounds that could shake things up. As always, these are forecast numbers—everything can change on election day, so all eyes remain on the upcoming vote.
Jun 3, 2025
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