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Fuel prices could go down by as much as ₱0.30 per liter, driven by movements in Asian oil markets and recent foreign exchange developments, according to an oil industry executive.

In a Friday report, Jetti Energy President Leo Bellas said diesel prices may drop by ₱0.10 to ₱0.30 per liter, while gasoline prices could stay flat or decline by up to ₱0.20 per liter.

Bellas explained that prices of gasoline and diesel, based on the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) benchmark, have been trending lower this week. The decline is being fueled by increased supply of refined oil products and concerns over crude oil oversupply, even as global tensions continue to simmer.

He noted that geopolitical risks remain—from recent developments in Venezuela, rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and growing concerns over a possible military escalation involving the US, Israel, and Iran. Still, these risks have not yet outweighed the supply-driven pressure pushing prices down.

However, Bellas warned that the situation could change quickly. “Any further worsening of geopolitical or policy developments can swiftly reverse the current market sentiment and push prices higher,” he said, potentially reducing—or even erasing—the expected rollback.

This week, gasoline prices fell by ₱0.10 per liter, while diesel and kerosene prices increased by ₱0.20 and ₱0.10 per liter, respectively.

Looking ahead, oil prices are generally expected to ease in the first quarter of the year due to oversupply forecasts, although global political tensions remain a key risk that could disrupt that outlook.