BUSINESS
Advocates Philippines
DLSU Economists Warn: PH Growth May Slow Even More In 2026
Photo credit: DLSU
The Philippine economy may be headed for a tougher year than expected, according to a new report from De La Salle University economists who say the country is now facing a “massive growth deceleration.”
In the May 2026 edition of the university’s economic report, researchers Dr. Jesus Felipe, Dr. Susan Kurdli, Dr. Mariel Monica Sauler, Gerome Vedeja, and Seth Paolo Paden revised the country’s 2026 growth forecast downward to just 3.11 percent — significantly lower than last year’s 4.4 percent expansion.
The downgrade came after the economy posted a weak 2.81 percent growth rate in the first quarter of the year, raising concerns that the slowdown could deepen in the coming months.
The report projects economic growth to ease further to 2.80 percent in the second quarter and fall to as low as 2.30 percent by the third quarter as both local and global pressures continue to weigh on the country.
According to the researchers, the slowdown is being driven by a mix of challenges, including rising energy prices linked to tensions in the Middle East, the possibility of tighter monetary policy, and higher fertilizer costs that are expected to push food prices even higher.
The economists also warned that recovery may take time, with growth in 2027 still projected to remain below 4 percent. A stronger rebound is only expected by 2028, when the economy could grow by 5.7 percent.
Beyond growth projections, the report also examined the weakening peso and ongoing food insecurity issues, both of which continue to affect Filipino households already struggling with high living costs.
The authors described the current situation as a “massive growth deceleration,” reflecting growing concerns over the country’s economic direction in the coming years.
In the May 2026 edition of the university’s economic report, researchers Dr. Jesus Felipe, Dr. Susan Kurdli, Dr. Mariel Monica Sauler, Gerome Vedeja, and Seth Paolo Paden revised the country’s 2026 growth forecast downward to just 3.11 percent — significantly lower than last year’s 4.4 percent expansion.
The downgrade came after the economy posted a weak 2.81 percent growth rate in the first quarter of the year, raising concerns that the slowdown could deepen in the coming months.
The report projects economic growth to ease further to 2.80 percent in the second quarter and fall to as low as 2.30 percent by the third quarter as both local and global pressures continue to weigh on the country.
According to the researchers, the slowdown is being driven by a mix of challenges, including rising energy prices linked to tensions in the Middle East, the possibility of tighter monetary policy, and higher fertilizer costs that are expected to push food prices even higher.
The economists also warned that recovery may take time, with growth in 2027 still projected to remain below 4 percent. A stronger rebound is only expected by 2028, when the economy could grow by 5.7 percent.
Beyond growth projections, the report also examined the weakening peso and ongoing food insecurity issues, both of which continue to affect Filipino households already struggling with high living costs.
The authors described the current situation as a “massive growth deceleration,” reflecting growing concerns over the country’s economic direction in the coming years.
May 18, 2026
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