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Advocates Philippines
Duterte Still Ahead, But Robredo Closes Gap In Early 2028 Matchup Survey
Photo credit: Sara Duterte and Leni Robredo / FB
Vice President Sara Duterte remains the frontrunner in a hypothetical 2028 presidential race—but the latest numbers suggest the contest is tightening.
In the first quarter 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey, Duterte secured 46% support in a head-to-head matchup against Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, who posted 35%. Another 19% of respondents said they are still undecided, signaling that a significant portion of voters has yet to take a side.
While Duterte continues to lead nationally, the margin is noticeably narrower compared to previous survey rounds, where she reportedly held a much wider advantage.
Her edge remains rooted in strong regional backing. Duterte continues to dominate in Mindanao, holds majority support in the Visayas, and performs well among lower-income voters—giving her a broad, nationwide base.
Robredo, however, is showing resilience in key battlegrounds. Her support is concentrated in vote-rich and politically influential areas such as the National Capital Region and the rest of Luzon outside Metro Manila. This concentrated backing keeps her competitive despite Duterte’s wider geographic reach.
The numbers highlight two contrasting political coalitions. Duterte commands a broader, more evenly distributed national base, while Robredo draws strength from densely populated regions where votes carry significant electoral weight.
The 19% undecided vote could prove decisive. With nearly one in five voters still uncommitted, the race remains open and could shift as political dynamics evolve.
The survey was conducted from March 19 to 25, 2026, using face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above nationwide. It has a margin of error of ±3% at a 95% confidence level.
For now, Duterte remains the candidate to beat—but the latest figures suggest that the road to 2028 may not be as one-sided as it once appeared.
In the first quarter 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey, Duterte secured 46% support in a head-to-head matchup against Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, who posted 35%. Another 19% of respondents said they are still undecided, signaling that a significant portion of voters has yet to take a side.
While Duterte continues to lead nationally, the margin is noticeably narrower compared to previous survey rounds, where she reportedly held a much wider advantage.
Her edge remains rooted in strong regional backing. Duterte continues to dominate in Mindanao, holds majority support in the Visayas, and performs well among lower-income voters—giving her a broad, nationwide base.
Robredo, however, is showing resilience in key battlegrounds. Her support is concentrated in vote-rich and politically influential areas such as the National Capital Region and the rest of Luzon outside Metro Manila. This concentrated backing keeps her competitive despite Duterte’s wider geographic reach.
The numbers highlight two contrasting political coalitions. Duterte commands a broader, more evenly distributed national base, while Robredo draws strength from densely populated regions where votes carry significant electoral weight.
The 19% undecided vote could prove decisive. With nearly one in five voters still uncommitted, the race remains open and could shift as political dynamics evolve.
The survey was conducted from March 19 to 25, 2026, using face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above nationwide. It has a margin of error of ±3% at a 95% confidence level.
For now, Duterte remains the candidate to beat—but the latest figures suggest that the road to 2028 may not be as one-sided as it once appeared.
May 1, 2026
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