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Advocates Philippines
El Nino Alert Raised, Dry Months Ahead
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The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration has officially raised an El Niño Alert, warning that a developing weather pattern could bring drier conditions across parts of the country in the coming months.
According to PAGASA, the tropical Pacific is currently under ENSO-neutral conditions, but there is now a strong likelihood that El Niño will form soon. Climate models and expert analysis indicate a 79% chance that El Niño will emerge between June and August 2026 and could persist until early 2027.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate cycle that affects weather patterns worldwide. It is typically marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, while waters near the Philippines tend to be cooler than usual.
PAGASA explained that an El Niño Alert is issued when there is at least a 70% probability that the phenomenon will develop within the next two to three months—a threshold that has now been exceeded.
With this development, authorities are warning of a higher chance of dry spells and possible droughts, especially in vulnerable areas of the country. These conditions could impact water supply, agriculture, and energy resources if the dry period becomes prolonged.
However, PAGASA noted that the effects are not uniform. Some parts of the country—particularly in the western section—may still experience above-normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon or “Habagat” season, even as El Niño develops.
The agency said it will continue to closely monitor the situation and provide updates as conditions evolve. It also urged government agencies and the public to prepare early and take precautionary measures to minimize the potential impacts of prolonged dry weather.
According to PAGASA, the tropical Pacific is currently under ENSO-neutral conditions, but there is now a strong likelihood that El Niño will form soon. Climate models and expert analysis indicate a 79% chance that El Niño will emerge between June and August 2026 and could persist until early 2027.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate cycle that affects weather patterns worldwide. It is typically marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, while waters near the Philippines tend to be cooler than usual.
PAGASA explained that an El Niño Alert is issued when there is at least a 70% probability that the phenomenon will develop within the next two to three months—a threshold that has now been exceeded.
With this development, authorities are warning of a higher chance of dry spells and possible droughts, especially in vulnerable areas of the country. These conditions could impact water supply, agriculture, and energy resources if the dry period becomes prolonged.
However, PAGASA noted that the effects are not uniform. Some parts of the country—particularly in the western section—may still experience above-normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon or “Habagat” season, even as El Niño develops.
The agency said it will continue to closely monitor the situation and provide updates as conditions evolve. It also urged government agencies and the public to prepare early and take precautionary measures to minimize the potential impacts of prolonged dry weather.
Apr 22, 2026
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