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PAGASA Flags El Nino: Dry Spells Possible Across PH
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The Philippines is now officially under El Niño conditions, according to the latest advisory from the state weather bureau DOST-PAGASA, raising concerns over shifting rainfall patterns and possible drought impacts in the coming months.
In its advisory, PAGASA confirmed that El Niño conditions emerged in the tropical Pacific after the observed relative sea surface temperature anomaly (rSSTA) reached the +0.5°C threshold in May 2026. Climate models also show a strong signal of intensification, with over an 80% probability that the event could develop into a full-scale El Niño and persist until early 2027.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and is marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. At the same time, the Philippine Sea typically experiences cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures.
For the Philippines, the impact is often significant. PAGASA explained that El Niño generally increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, which raises the risk of dry spells and drought—especially in vulnerable and agriculture-dependent areas.
However, the agency also stressed that the situation does not mean uniform dryness across the country. Above-normal rainfall may still occur, particularly in the western sections of the Philippines during the Southwest Monsoon or Habagat season. This can be further intensified by tropical cyclone activity, which may still bring periods of heavy rainfall.
Despite the developing dry trend, PAGASA emphasized that weather risks remain two-sided. While some areas may face drought conditions, others could still experience flooding due to monsoon rains and storms.
The agency said it will continue to closely monitor the evolving El Niño event and its potential impacts on the country’s climate. It also urged government agencies and the public to prepare early, especially in communities vulnerable to both flooding during Habagat season and dry spells linked to El Niño conditions.
As the situation develops, PAGASA continues to remind the public that early preparedness and water conservation will be key in managing the possible effects of the prolonged climate event.
In its advisory, PAGASA confirmed that El Niño conditions emerged in the tropical Pacific after the observed relative sea surface temperature anomaly (rSSTA) reached the +0.5°C threshold in May 2026. Climate models also show a strong signal of intensification, with over an 80% probability that the event could develop into a full-scale El Niño and persist until early 2027.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and is marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. At the same time, the Philippine Sea typically experiences cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures.
For the Philippines, the impact is often significant. PAGASA explained that El Niño generally increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, which raises the risk of dry spells and drought—especially in vulnerable and agriculture-dependent areas.
However, the agency also stressed that the situation does not mean uniform dryness across the country. Above-normal rainfall may still occur, particularly in the western sections of the Philippines during the Southwest Monsoon or Habagat season. This can be further intensified by tropical cyclone activity, which may still bring periods of heavy rainfall.
Despite the developing dry trend, PAGASA emphasized that weather risks remain two-sided. While some areas may face drought conditions, others could still experience flooding due to monsoon rains and storms.
The agency said it will continue to closely monitor the evolving El Niño event and its potential impacts on the country’s climate. It also urged government agencies and the public to prepare early, especially in communities vulnerable to both flooding during Habagat season and dry spells linked to El Niño conditions.
As the situation develops, PAGASA continues to remind the public that early preparedness and water conservation will be key in managing the possible effects of the prolonged climate event.
Jun 9, 2026
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